Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'A journey into the unknown'

I seem to have been reading and reviewing an endless stream of lengthy reports and consultation documents recently, including the 150 page Ministry of Justice 'Transforming Bailiff Action' consultation over the past weekend, but more of that later (and please respond when the Institute issues its consultation survey questionnaire in the not too distant future). Some of the documents have been more interesting than others but let me mention two reports relating to consumer debt and advice.

The first is 'Debt Advice in the UK', the final report produced by London Economics for the Money Advice Service. The Money Advice Service, which was initially set up by the Government, is funded by a charge levied on the financial services industry and collected by the Financial Services Authority. It replaced the Consumer Financial Education Body in April last year. In 2012/13 the Service will use a budget of £46.3 million to deliver against its money advice targets, and a separate budget of £40.5m to coordinate the delivery of debt advice across the UK. Credit professionals working in the sector will be keen to see that the financial services industry's levies are put to good use!

The report concludes that 'Overall, the desk review of the existing literature and information on the debt advice sector and the consultations with stakeholders show that, while there exists a fair body of material on individual debt advice providers or programmes, very few analyses take a more holistic approach, covering the debt advice sector as a whole or, at least, large segments of it. Notable information gaps relate to: estimates of the actual and total demand for debt advice; the volume of debt advice provision by form and channel for the sector as a whole; the needs of actual and potential debt advice seekers; and the comparative effectiveness in the short and longer run of the different forms and channels of debt advice provision.'

I may be being cynical here, but to my simple mind it seems that the report tells us more about what it can't tell us than about what it can!

The second is the 'Consumer Debt and Money Report' launched by the Consumer Credit Counselling Service as the first in a series of quarterly reports based on research carried out by Cebr. This reveals: that households are spending 24 percent of their discretionary income - £199 per month - on interest payments; that the demand for debt advice is forecast to remain high and peak in 2014 as unemployment rises across the UK; and that middle-aged and older people will be increasingly affected by debt problems severe enough for them to need to seek help, highlighting the challenging financial situation that older households face. The report predicts that CCCS's share of clients over the age of 45 will rise from a historic 28 percent in January 2005 to a projected 47.6 percent by December 2014.

I was privileged to chair the ICM's Credit Industry Think Tank last week - it's always great hearing the views of leading experts from across our industry - and, during the forum, we were reminded that personal insolvencies are falling, with 2011's figure of c120,000 representing a fall of about 15,000 over 2010. Good news perhaps, but let's bear one thing in mind: no numbers are collected for debt management plants arranged through the advice sector and these do not appear in the official published insolvency figures (another piece of missing but vital data!).

I hope at least some of the Money Advice Service's £86.8m will be used to identify the real size of the problem and the effectiveness of solutions. Without knowing where we are, it's hard to plan the route to a better place!

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Be careful what you wish for'

In a Financial Times survey of 83 economists (including 11 former members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee) earlier this week there was a consensus, by a majority of three to one, that the economic outlook in 2012 would deteriorate. It also showed that almost all of those expressing an opinion said the UK outlook would be much worse if the Euro collapsed. I can't say I'm surprised by the findings - I think we've all known for a while that this year is going to be tough and little better - if at all - than 2011.

I quoted Richard Tyler of the Telegraph in my blog on 1 December saying that we should all commit not to say Britain would have another recession on the basis that these things can become self-fulfilling. I'm not sure what impact our words have but I do know something of the positive impact credit professionals can have on their businesses and that is something we certainly should be talking about.

2012 is the year when we, as credit professionals, need to stand up and be counted. We need to make sure that our peers, colleagues, and Boards know and understand the contribution we can - and do - make. When a potential order is difficult to accept, we can engineer payment terms and security to make the unacceptable acceptable. When a coveted order is almost out of reach, payment terms used cleverly can make the unattainable attainable. When a situation with a debtor is looking like it could go horribly wrong, careful management and close contact can make the potentially irrecoverable recoverable.

Whatever sector and industry we work in, and whatever our role, we need to show our professionalism, be proud of our profession, and raise awareness of the significance of our contribution. Two practical steps we might take: firstly, calculate the cash-flow value of one day's sales to our businesses so we can talk about our contribution in terms of hard cash rather than the reduction of one day in DSO (the former is much more meaningful to the rest of the business). Secondly, we can show we are professionals and belong to an organisation representing our profession by wearing the new ICM badge. If you haven't got yours yet, simply send an email to members@icm.org.uk quoting your correct email address and saying how many people currently work in your credit department.

I'm not a great believer in New Year's resolutions but I do passionately believe in setting goals, and showing commitment to them by monitoring progress. For 2012, be proud of your professionalism, stand up and be counted, and don't be afraid to demonstrate your value.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM -'Kill or cure the zombies'

On Monday the Financial Times ran a story with the headline "Institutions urged to kill or cure the zombies" which talked about "zombie" businesses, to describe those that can pay interest on their debts but has no viable means of repaying the principal over the long term. The article highlights the fact that many businesses are passed the point of no return but are staying afloat because of low interest rates, HMRC's discretionary Time to Pay arrangements, and/or banks keeping businesses in "intensive care" rather than allowing them to fail. It is little comfort to see a respected newspaper making the very same arguments that I have been saying for at least the last two years in my public assertions that there is a spike of corporate insolvencies waiting just round the corner. I recognise that it has taken longer to reach the corner than I anticipated but I continue to maintain that we are going to see a substantial increase at some point. Too many businesses are in a state of denial and it is only going to take a change in one factor to push them over the edge, be that the rent quarter day this week, a negative response to a request for an extension to the HMRC Time to Pay arrangement, an increase in interest rates, or another factor such as a large customer failing or failing to pay sufficiently promptly.

If you watched Dragons Den this week you might have seen the director of a twenty year old business seeking £100,000 investment to help his business grow. Upon questioning, it became apparent that the business had been loosing money in three of the last four years, had a very low balance sheet net worth and, if current forecasts were met, would be technically insolvent at the end of the current financial period. The argument that sales next year would be much better and would see a return to profit seemed to have little substance and, not surprisingly, there were no takers among the dragons. It's obviously difficult to see the whole picture from a few edited minutes on TV but the scenario of a business thinking tomorrow will be better without realising the reality of its financial situation today is not uncommon.

In the FT article, Christine Elliott, Chief Executive of the Institute of Turnaround said "she would like to see institutions that have potentially viable businesses under their care change their mindset. They should either recognise non-viable businesses and deal with them through insolvency or put in place a transformation plan to achieve their potential". We credit professionals have a very similar task: to recognise viable businesses and help create profitable sales for our own organisations, and to recognise non-viable businesses and ensure exposure is minimised. Sometimes we to have to decide whether to kill or cure the zombies.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Tug of war with no winner'

There has been some interesting press comment recently about the tug of war between retailers and consumers. One article talked about supermarket promotions that 'rip chunks out of the manufacturers' profit margins' and are unsustainable. It talked about the impact of declining consumer confidence and the impact of consumers feeling poorer. Although we all like a bargain, the vicious cycle of more promotions and price-cutting chasing more difficult-to-achieve sales is not good news. And there's worse!

We've seen in the last week reports of double digit falls in year-on-year quarterly sales from the major electrical and homeware retailers and analysts saying the outlook is bleak as people grow more nervous about their financial security and put off purchasing decisions. Add this to the recent spate of insolvencies and it's clear that the retail sector is under huge pressure.

But it's not just retail; industrial output is suffering too, and there is an interesting contrast between the UK and Germany. The Office for National Statistics reported a drop of 0.2% in industrial output in July; in contrast, industrial production in Germany jumped by 4% that was, apparently, way above expectations. It seems that foreign demand is weak and, coupled with a drop in confidence in the business market, things are not looking good.

Matthew Rock, editor of realbusiness, tweeted recently about a meeting with a board director of major energy business and noted a big change in mood over just six months - "they've moved from talking of growth to 'cost review'," he says.

All this bad news made me think about how credit professionals can add value to their businesses when their skills are exploited. Good credit management is about finding ways to do business that otherwise might not be acceptable. In my career, I have often worked with sales teams and others to engineer ways of taking business that we might otherwise have declined.

Now is the time for credit professionals to step up to the plate and help their businesses through what are, without doubt, difficult and challenging times. If you've ever been called the 'Sales Prevention Officer', you can dispel that myth by working closely and creatively with the rest of the business and demonstrating real professionalism.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Pride in Professionalism!'

A couple of weeks out of the office and I'm back raring to go. I looked at only a few emails, turned off Twitter and was generally very well behaved - I think even Mrs K was surprised! While I was absent, I gave away my daughter on her wedding day which was as perfect as we could have hoped for, spent a few days in the North West of England, and watched the world going mad. Riots in London and elsewhere, the US economy being downgraded, and a possible European financial meltdown as just a few examples. So back to reality and I've decided not to join in the bigger debates that have been going on while I've been away since all the arguments have already been expressed and in better words than I can use.

I do want to share some thoughts on professionalism though. The Institute of Credit Management (ICM) delivers cash for business by empowering credit professionals working in those businesses to be more effective, and a couple of emails received from ICM members during my holiday reminded me of just how important the credit management role is. Members of the ICM are professionals working in the field of credit management who recognise the importance of what they do and are keen to develop their own knowledge and careers, whether that is through qualifications, training courses, keeping up-to-date through reading Credit Management magazine and ICM Briefings, attending regional networking events, participating in online forums, or engaging in other ways. In short, they are showing pride in being professional by belonging to an organisation that supports them, works for them, and encourages them.

And yet I meet many people working in credit management who, although they recognise the value they add, don't see it as a profession in its own right. Many of us would argue rightly that it is a challenging, rewarding and worthwhile profession, and needs to be seen as such. We have made significant strides in recent years in gaining recognition but we need to do more. The new Continuing Professional Development scheme the ICM is piloting is an example. More important though is getting those of us who do the job to make sure our peers and business colleagues (above and below) understand that we're working in a profession we're proud of and is vital to the sustaining and growth of business and the economy.

If you know someone who's working in credit management and hasn't yet got round to joining the ICM, give them a nudge or send me their details and I'll nudge them. The more members we have, the louder our voice will be and I'm on a mission to raise the volume - let's get all credit professionals to show Pride in Professionalism!

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'You tell us'

The ICM UK Credit Managers' Index for the second quarter of 2011 is now well underway and responses are coming in. If you haven't responded yet, there is still time and you can do so at http://svy.mk/j6zyU6.

When we launched the Index last year, we wanted to create something that would provide regular insight into the thoughts, attitudes, and levels of confidence of UK credit professionals.

Nobody is closer to customers - their behaviours, their financial strength and their financial weakness - than a good credit professional. When we know our customers as we should, we are often able to see the signs of trouble looming well before our peers from other parts of the business. In the same way, we are aware of, and more sensitive to, changes in general activity and across the wider economy.

It is unusual for me to make much mention of the ICM in my weekly blog but our members are vital players in delivering value for their businesses. Their opinions are relevant and perceptive, and combining their insight into a serious Index provides a really good barometer of where the country's economy is heading.

The ICM is a community of credit professionals; we speak for that community and the importance and relevance of credit management is being recognised more and more by government, business organisations, and businesses themselves. The Index is an output from the credit community and, if you haven't already done so, please take 3 minutes to have your say now.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'To tweet or not to tweet'

Tweeting to Rachel Bridge of the Sunday Times, recently, made me realise just how far we have come in our social networking strategy.

We've now been actively tweeting for over a year (philipkingicm: 1,244 tweets; 389 followers / icmorg: 313 tweets; 145 followers), I've been writing this weekly blog for almost ten months (this is my 41st), and our LinkedIn group (ICM Credit Community) has amassed 1,745 members. These numbers both impress me by how quickly they've grown, and disappoint me in that so many people aren't engaging.

The reality of course is that we are all different; we all want to consume news and communicate in different ways. For some, our magazine Credit Management is the only communication they want to receive; others want email contact; and others want a mix.

And this of course isn't limited to contact from organisations like the ICM; it flows through all aspects of life. I can't remember the last time I watched the TV news yet I'm an avid listener to news on the radio; I've recently become a Kindle convert yet I always insisted I never would because I love books so much.

So what's my point? I've recently seen examples of just how powerful Twitter and LinkedIn can be in generating contact and communication (particularly with the press) that otherwise wouldn't happen. The Sunday Times coverage for the ICM ten days ago came as a direct consequence of a Twitter conversation between me and the Enterprise Editor. I'm making contact with some of our Members in an informal way that would not take place by phone or email, simply because Twitter and LinkedIn provide the opportunity to do so, and those conversations sometimes lead to deeper, 'real' conversations as a consequence.

We shouldn't be afraid to embrace new technology and ideas. Some will fail early, some will last a while then diminish (Friends Reunited is a good example), and others will get stronger - although there's already talk that Facebook's popularity is starting to decline precisely at the point when some of us are just beginning to understand its value. Twitter, too, will no doubt one day reach saturation point and outgrow itself. For now though, by being selective about who I follow, Twitter provides me with access to news, views, information, and contact that I might otherwise miss or at least not see so quickly. It is therefore useful. And I've talked to credit professionals who use these media as a way of knowing their customers better and that can pay real dividends!

http://twitter.com/philipkingicm
http://twitter.com/#!/icmorg
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?home=&gid=94851