Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Putting the lifeblood back into business'

The highly regarded Ernst & Young Item Club came out at the weekend with a forecast growth for the year of a dismal 0.4%. Although Item Club uses the same economic models as the Treasury, its forecast was much worse than the Treasury's a few weeks ago. Speaking on Radio 4 earlier in the week, its commentator attributed this largely to timing and the dynamic nature of economic factors. The Club says Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hoarding their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list" until companies start spending again.

I talk to many businesses of all shapes and sizes and the vast majority tell me that they are struggling to find customers who are willing to spend or make significant investments. This is a feeling particularly prevalent among the SME community whose fundamental priority seems to be one of survival rather than planning for growth or expansion. We're all waiting for real signs of recovery before we can start to feel confident, and until confidence returns we won't want to spend or invest. Until we do, however, "Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hording their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list"......" (see above). It seems like the classic vicious circle to me!

There is one thing that companies could do though that would generate cash-flow for the whole business community and would definitely aid economic recovery. Pay their bills on time! Some do, and there are examples of really good practice, but many - big and small - don't, and because of that their suppliers struggle for healthy cash-flow and in some cases fail to survive. The Prompt Payment Code hosted by the ICM for BIS was launched to help change the culture to one where paying on time and to the agreed payment terms was the norm rather than the exception. Well in excess of a thousand organisations have signed up to the Code but many more could do so.

Paying on time has many advantages: it releases money tied up in unpaid debtors; it allows business owners to focus on selling and providing a better service rather than chasing payment from tardy customers; and ultimately it helps more businesses to survive and prosper. The Prompt Payment Code can be found at http://www.promptpaymentcode.org.uk/.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Merlin loses its sparkle'

Vince Cable has apparently, and allegedly, admitted that Project Merlin has failed. The Merlin agreement with the major banks guaranteed that lending to small businesses would increase to £76bn in 2011 but his acknowledgement that 'new mechanisms' would have to be considered is a tacit recognition that Merlin hasn't worked. The Chancellor's announcement last week of his 'credit easing' plan of a new credit line for business is further evidence.

As I said at the time, the idea that commercial banks could be 'forced' (as some commentators described it) to lend seemed farfetched at best. Commercial banks have a responsibility to ensure that their lending risks are justified and their lending policies are sound. We've all seen spectator examples in the press of where they may have got it wrong but receiving much less publicity are the numerous cases where they've declined to lend and have been right to do so.

I won't pretend to fully understand the concept of 'credit easing', the detail of which has yet to be made clear, but Phil Orford, the Chief executive of the Forum of Private Business asked three very sensible questions in a recent blog about a scheme which it would appear would require Treasury officials, or officials of an agency specifically appointed for the task, to have a start making judgments on lending taxpayers' money to private sector firms:

• How will they decide which companies deserve a loan from the taxpayer?


• How will the money be channeled to the businesses that need it?


• If these businesses are safe bets, why aren't private lenders already lending to them?

All will become clear in due course and I'll be fascinated to see exactly how it will work.

The other issue that needs to be addressed is how to encourage those business with outstanding debtors to use best practice in credit management to release that money and therefore reduce their external cash requirements. It might even save them having to look for working capital funding at all, but more of that next week by which time I'll have met with two MPs - one Conservative and one Labour - and discussed such matters.