Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Putting the lifeblood back into business'

The highly regarded Ernst & Young Item Club came out at the weekend with a forecast growth for the year of a dismal 0.4%. Although Item Club uses the same economic models as the Treasury, its forecast was much worse than the Treasury's a few weeks ago. Speaking on Radio 4 earlier in the week, its commentator attributed this largely to timing and the dynamic nature of economic factors. The Club says Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hoarding their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list" until companies start spending again.

I talk to many businesses of all shapes and sizes and the vast majority tell me that they are struggling to find customers who are willing to spend or make significant investments. This is a feeling particularly prevalent among the SME community whose fundamental priority seems to be one of survival rather than planning for growth or expansion. We're all waiting for real signs of recovery before we can start to feel confident, and until confidence returns we won't want to spend or invest. Until we do, however, "Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hording their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list"......" (see above). It seems like the classic vicious circle to me!

There is one thing that companies could do though that would generate cash-flow for the whole business community and would definitely aid economic recovery. Pay their bills on time! Some do, and there are examples of really good practice, but many - big and small - don't, and because of that their suppliers struggle for healthy cash-flow and in some cases fail to survive. The Prompt Payment Code hosted by the ICM for BIS was launched to help change the culture to one where paying on time and to the agreed payment terms was the norm rather than the exception. Well in excess of a thousand organisations have signed up to the Code but many more could do so.

Paying on time has many advantages: it releases money tied up in unpaid debtors; it allows business owners to focus on selling and providing a better service rather than chasing payment from tardy customers; and ultimately it helps more businesses to survive and prosper. The Prompt Payment Code can be found at http://www.promptpaymentcode.org.uk/.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Change the insolvency landscape'

I've spent a good deal of time over the last few days reading and reviewing the Insolvency Service's 'Consultation on Reforming the Regulatory Framework for Insolvency Practitioners' which has been produced following the OFT Market Study into Corporate Insolvency published last June.

It's large document (c90 pages), so not an easy read but nevertheless vitally important for credit professionals. Indeed the press release that accompanied the launch highlights a principal objective of the consultation in considering ' the three main issues to address the problems associated with the weak position of unsecured creditors.'

When I'm out and about, our Members and those in the credit community frequently complain to me about the insolvency process and how they lose out. This then is our opportunity to influence the insolvency landscape of the future. If we ignore it, we do so at our peril, and to this end the ICM will shortly be issuing a survey that will enable anyone interested to give their opinion and comment on aspects of the paper that are relevant to them. Please take the time and trouble to allow us to take your thoughts and feedback into account when we produce our final response to Government.

Elsewhere I see that David Kern, Chief Economist at the British Chambers of Commerce has reacted to the recently published minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee http://bit.ly/h77WrS. He's absolutely right when he says '...the factors pushing up prices in the short-term are outside the MPC's control...' Raising interest rates now would be too soon and would damage the prospects for recovery.

Finally, I'm writing these words ahead of the ICM's Regional Roadshow at the National Motorcycle Museum in Birmingham which has the highest number of registrations yet for our Roadshow programme. To find out more about our Roadshows and when we're going to be near you visit: http://www.icm.org.uk/default.asp?edit_id=1286-56

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'One economist agrees with me!'

An SME 'Access to Finance Research Report' published recently by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales (ICAEW) held little in the way of surprises either in its findings or its recommendations. But it was nonetheless interesting.

One of the recommendations that particularly struck a chord with me, for example, was that 'SMEs need to display good financial management'. This is especially pertinent given the work that the Institute of Credit Management has been doing as part of the Doing Business Together initiative http://www.doingbusinesstogether.org/ and the need for greater transparency and clarity from all sides.

Whilst the report suggested that banks needed to do more to improve their relationship with the SME sector, it also concluded: '...well-managed, viable businesses with good track records have been able to obtain the finance they require........'. Such a statement will come as no surprise to those banks supplying the finance or credit professionals providing the trade credit!

I spent one afternoon this week with Roger Martin-Fagg, an economist, listening to his outlook for 2011 and beyond. Roger talks a great deal of sense and can support his arguments well. I was particularly pleased to find an economist who agrees with me that we're going to see a real surge in corporate insolvencies in the months ahead. I've been starting to feel I'm in a minority of one recently but perhaps not, after all!

His views on the difference between 'demand-pull' and 'cost-push' inflation are interesting too; we've got the latter in the UK and - for that reason - raising interest rates alone will not solve the problem. We watch with interest to see what happens next.

Feedback, positive or negative always welcome - use the response form or e-mail me at ceo@icm.org.uk.

'Storm clouds brewing' - Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM

It has been yet another busy week, starting with the award to Geopost of its QiCM accreditation, an accreditation that the team had to work hard to achieve. In these challenging times, when good credit management is needed more than ever, it is pleasing to see (and present the award to) a team that is so focused, so enthusiastic, so organised and so committed and - as a result - is delivering real value to the organisation.

It has also been a week of much discussion, from the analysis of the ICM Technical Committee into the latest consultations and technical issues that affect credit professionals on a practical and day-to-day basis through to the round table with Bacs, agreeing - and disagreeing - about the issue of late payment and how it can best be addressed.

There was a similarly healthy debate at an event hosted by Hays where I was able to share my passion for all things 'credit management' with about 70 professionals eager to listen, discuss and share about issues that affect their everyday working together to create a single credit 'community'. I know I've said it before but this community is a really important element of what we do.

Finally I note that new figures suggest insolvencies and personal bankruptcies are falling - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11701334?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter on the face of it this is good news, but I'm not changing my long held - and often stated - view that we're still in a lull before a horrible storm. I remain convinced we're going to see a surge in corporate insolvency, for a number of reasons including: the tightening up of the HMRC deferred payment scheme is going to leave businesses having to find cash; as the economy starts to recover, the need for cash is going to increase and, historically, insolvencies have always risen as we've come out of a recession; and lastly that the impact of the public sector cuts (as previously discussed here) is going to be far worse than many realise.