Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Mixed Fortunes'

The last week and a half has been pretty amazing. I returned from a great two-week break touring the Scottish Highlands, I've had my 57th birthday, and my first grandchild has been born! The North West of Scotland has breathtaking scenery and it was brilliant to spend some quality time relaxing with Mary, my long-suffering wife. Apart from one afternoon looking at late payment issues and talking to a Financial Times journalist, I genuinely avoided emails and voicemails and it made a pleasant change. I'll skirt round my birthday since I've had so many of them now that there's not much to say!

The really exciting news is the arrival of my grandson which has brought back all the emotion that accompanied the arrival of our own children 29, 26, and 21 years ago, and has reminded me of the miracle that childbirth represents. My blogs aren't often personal but I couldn't let this event pass by without a mention, although I won't pick up my phone and start imposing pictures on you as I might if you were here!

On my office desk when I returned to ICM HQ was the StepChange Debt Charity Statistical Yearbook for 2012 and it brought me back to the real world with a bump. On average across the year, someone sought help from the charity every 78 seconds either online or by phone and we have to remind ourselves that StepChange is just one route for debt advice. There are numerous organisations offering support, help, and advice and – looking at the most recent Credit Action debt statistics – I see that Citizens Advice Bureaux in England and Wales dealt with 7,824 new debt problems every working day during the year ending March 2013. Worse still, the letter accompanying the StepChange report reveals that, for about a quarter of the clients they advised last year, they were unable to suggest a way forward because the client lacked the means to cover essential living costs while insolvency was inappropriate for their circumstances.

To help some of these clients StepChange has launched a new 'token payment' service, an interim measure of short-term relief allowing clients time to get their affairs in order where there is a reasonable expectation that their circumstances will improve in the reasonably short-term. Token payments, of course, are not new but this approach to their administration is, and it coincides with a pilot 'Sustainable Debt Advice Project' run by AdviceUK which is now being rolled out more widely.

Just as we all have cause to celebrate from time to time, so we all face problems and many customers get into financial difficulty because of a sudden or dramatic change in circumstances. We want to be paid what we are owed, and solutions giving customers who want to pay some temporary breathing space are to be welcomed, especially if the longer-term prospects are improved as a result.

Finally, it would be remiss of me not to thank Charles Mayhew, Sue Chapple, and Sue Kettle for their excellent guest blogs while I was away. I appreciate their support and enjoyed their contributions.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Testament of Youth'

There was an interesting article in the Financial Times about youth unemployment on Monday. Hot on the heels of the recent revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that has cast doubt on last year's UK double-dip recession, it served as a timely reminder of how dangerous it can be to rely on statistics or to accept them at face value.

 

Both the OECD and the United Nations have recently warned that the spiralling rates of youth unemployment across many advanced economies will have severe consequences following the latest reported figures showing that nearly a quarter of European under-25s are now unemployed. A truly terrifying statistic, particularly in Greece and Spain where the figure is over 50%, and Italy and Portugal where it is 40%, until we get beneath the headline, and let me quote the FT's Kate Allen in explaining.

 

"Youth unemployment figures are meaningless without understanding what proportion of a country's young people are economically active."  "Unemployment figures only reflect the proportion of the population who are economically active ­ i.e. looking for a job, but unable to find one."

 

'Youth' in this context is defined as young people aged 15-24 and inactivity rates can be expected to be very high with many in education or training.  Taking this into account the FT calculates the true youth unemployment rate in Spain to be marginally over 20%, Greece about 17%, Portugal 15%, and Italy 11%.  Indeed, on this basis the unemployment figure for European young people is fewer than 10% rather than the reported almost 25%.

 

There are conflicting opinions about who originally said "lies, damned lies and statistics" but, whoever it was, we should bear their words in mind when we read or hear numbers being quoted in support of a view or argument. Context can be all-important!

 

 

 

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'The value of true leadership'

The Financial Times reported this week that "if the International Monetary Fund's latest forecasts are right, then meaningful growth looks set to elude Britain for another two years." So stagflation is here to stay.

 

I've been listening to Jim Collins' 2011 book 'Great by Choice' and the results of this research are fascinating. The sub-title is 'Uncertainty, chaos and luck – why some thrive despite them all' and, following his standard research approach, Jim (together with his colleague Morten Hansen) looks at truly successful businesses and compares and contrasts them with a direct competitor which they have out-performed by a factor of at least ten times over a defined period. I'm only half-way through the book but what is already apparent is that the successful examples are, to a great extent, the result of having a great or enlightened leader. He talks about three common elements: Fanatic Discipline, Empirical Creativity, and Productive Paranoia but comes back to an individual that led the business' approach and made a real difference.

 

The early part of the book is a captivating comparison of the attempts by Captain Scott and Roald Amundsen to reach the South Pole. He argues and demonstrates that they were both operating in similar environments but that the difference was their approach both before and during their expeditions. For Amundsen it was a race to victory and a safe return home while, for Captain Scott, it was a devastating and tragic defeat. Events that date back to 1911 have some strong and powerful lessons for today.

If we're in a prolonged period without growth then the approach we take to our roles and to our businesses will determine the outcome and – wherever we sit within an organisation – we can have an impact and have to choose whether it will be positive or negative. I know I'm currently looking closely at what I need to do differently in the months ahead.

 

When it comes to great leaders, there's been a huge amount written following the recent death of Margaret Thatcher. It's been interesting to listen to commentators and contemporaries, some of whom are great supporters and others vociferous detractors, all share one view. She was passionate in her beliefs, she was fiercely loyal to her country, and she has left a lasting legacy on British politics. In an era when bland sound-bytes and immediate short-term company results are too often the focus, real leaders are few and far between and we need more of them driving us back to growth.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Making business add up'

I've been catching up on reading that accumulated while I was on holiday and had a look at the SME Finance Monitor over last weekend; the full document can be found here: http://www.sme-finance-monitor.co.uk

 

A few interesting statistics struck me: 43% SMEs are using external finance, compared with 51% a year ago; 34% of loan and 21% of overdraft applications were declined; banks offered alternative funding or pointed to alternative sources of finance in just 9% (loans) and 13% (overdrafts) of cases; 70% of those declined felt the advice they received from the bank was poor and 25% were not given reasons for the decline decision. Almost more alarmingly, only 8% (loans) and 14% (overdrafts) of declined applicants were aware of the appeals process even though it's been available for well over a year now, and just 47% were aware of any of the Government's lending initiatives, of which the National Loan Guarantee Scheme is but one example.

 

So we still haven't fixed the problem that banks (and the Government) aren't communicating adequately with the SME community, and the message persists, particularly from the media and some business organisations, that banks remain reluctant to lend. But we do also need a sense of balance.

 

I've just started listening to Jonathan Moules' book 'The Rebel Entrepreneur'. Jonathan has been Enterprise Correspondent at the Financial Times for several years and he makes the point in an early chapter that, although the banks may seem reluctant to lend, there is a balancing argument that says the current economic situation is in part due to banks lending when they shouldn't have done so, and on terms that were unsustainable. He argues that many businesses do not merit being lent to, and gives examples of very successful businesses that achieved their growth by managing in the early days on a shoestring and refusing to incur debt that could sooner or later become a millstone. If the banks don't impose sensible lending policies, we'll be in danger of repeating the cycle all over again.

 

I'm an avid follower of Dragons' Den and it's hard not to be frustrated by entrepreneurs who clearly have a brilliant business idea but cannot remember, or worse do not know, the salient financials on which their request for funding is based. If someone cannot say how much the business turned over or made/lost in the recent past, then why would anyone have the confidence to risk their own capital? Talking to bankers I hear many examples of businesses who seek funding based on a business case that is at best unrealistic and, at worst, simply doesn't add up (literally).

 

Just as businesses have to help themselves by applying basic credit management principles, so they need to think through their plans and ensure they put together a business case that is realistic and believable before they ask for funding. The more information they provide, and the better it is, the greater their chance of success. 

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Be careful what you wish for'

In a Financial Times survey of 83 economists (including 11 former members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee) earlier this week there was a consensus, by a majority of three to one, that the economic outlook in 2012 would deteriorate. It also showed that almost all of those expressing an opinion said the UK outlook would be much worse if the Euro collapsed. I can't say I'm surprised by the findings - I think we've all known for a while that this year is going to be tough and little better - if at all - than 2011.

I quoted Richard Tyler of the Telegraph in my blog on 1 December saying that we should all commit not to say Britain would have another recession on the basis that these things can become self-fulfilling. I'm not sure what impact our words have but I do know something of the positive impact credit professionals can have on their businesses and that is something we certainly should be talking about.

2012 is the year when we, as credit professionals, need to stand up and be counted. We need to make sure that our peers, colleagues, and Boards know and understand the contribution we can - and do - make. When a potential order is difficult to accept, we can engineer payment terms and security to make the unacceptable acceptable. When a coveted order is almost out of reach, payment terms used cleverly can make the unattainable attainable. When a situation with a debtor is looking like it could go horribly wrong, careful management and close contact can make the potentially irrecoverable recoverable.

Whatever sector and industry we work in, and whatever our role, we need to show our professionalism, be proud of our profession, and raise awareness of the significance of our contribution. Two practical steps we might take: firstly, calculate the cash-flow value of one day's sales to our businesses so we can talk about our contribution in terms of hard cash rather than the reduction of one day in DSO (the former is much more meaningful to the rest of the business). Secondly, we can show we are professionals and belong to an organisation representing our profession by wearing the new ICM badge. If you haven't got yours yet, simply send an email to members@icm.org.uk quoting your correct email address and saying how many people currently work in your credit department.

I'm not a great believer in New Year's resolutions but I do passionately believe in setting goals, and showing commitment to them by monitoring progress. For 2012, be proud of your professionalism, stand up and be counted, and don't be afraid to demonstrate your value.

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM -'Kill or cure the zombies'

On Monday the Financial Times ran a story with the headline "Institutions urged to kill or cure the zombies" which talked about "zombie" businesses, to describe those that can pay interest on their debts but has no viable means of repaying the principal over the long term. The article highlights the fact that many businesses are passed the point of no return but are staying afloat because of low interest rates, HMRC's discretionary Time to Pay arrangements, and/or banks keeping businesses in "intensive care" rather than allowing them to fail. It is little comfort to see a respected newspaper making the very same arguments that I have been saying for at least the last two years in my public assertions that there is a spike of corporate insolvencies waiting just round the corner. I recognise that it has taken longer to reach the corner than I anticipated but I continue to maintain that we are going to see a substantial increase at some point. Too many businesses are in a state of denial and it is only going to take a change in one factor to push them over the edge, be that the rent quarter day this week, a negative response to a request for an extension to the HMRC Time to Pay arrangement, an increase in interest rates, or another factor such as a large customer failing or failing to pay sufficiently promptly.

If you watched Dragons Den this week you might have seen the director of a twenty year old business seeking £100,000 investment to help his business grow. Upon questioning, it became apparent that the business had been loosing money in three of the last four years, had a very low balance sheet net worth and, if current forecasts were met, would be technically insolvent at the end of the current financial period. The argument that sales next year would be much better and would see a return to profit seemed to have little substance and, not surprisingly, there were no takers among the dragons. It's obviously difficult to see the whole picture from a few edited minutes on TV but the scenario of a business thinking tomorrow will be better without realising the reality of its financial situation today is not uncommon.

In the FT article, Christine Elliott, Chief Executive of the Institute of Turnaround said "she would like to see institutions that have potentially viable businesses under their care change their mindset. They should either recognise non-viable businesses and deal with them through insolvency or put in place a transformation plan to achieve their potential". We credit professionals have a very similar task: to recognise viable businesses and help create profitable sales for our own organisations, and to recognise non-viable businesses and ensure exposure is minimised. Sometimes we to have to decide whether to kill or cure the zombies.