Thursday, 6 June 2013

Weekly Blog by Philip King, CEO of the ICM - 'Testament of Youth'


There was an interesting article in the Financial Times about youth unemployment on Monday. Hot on the heels of the recent revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) that has cast doubt on last year's UK double-dip recession, it served as a timely reminder of how dangerous it can be to rely on statistics or to accept them at face value.
 
Both the OECD and the United Nations have recently warned that the spiralling rates of youth unemployment across many advanced economies will have severe consequences following the latest reported figures showing that nearly a quarter of European under-25s are now unemployed. A truly terrifying statistic, particularly in Greece and Spain where the figure is over 50%, and Italy and Portugal where it is 40%, until we get beneath the headline, and let me quote the FT's Kate Allen in explaining.
 
"Youth unemployment figures are meaningless without understanding what proportion of a country's young people are economically active."  "Unemployment figures only reflect the proportion of the population who are economically active ­ i.e. looking for a job, but unable to find one."
 
'Youth' in this context is defined as young people aged 15-24 and inactivity rates can be expected to be very high with many in education or training.  Taking this into account the FT calculates the true youth unemployment rate in Spain to be marginally over 20%, Greece about 17%, Portugal 15%, and Italy 11%.  Indeed, on this basis the unemployment figure for European young people is fewer than 10% rather than the reported almost 25%.
 
There are conflicting opinions about who originally said "lies, damned lies and statistics" but, whoever it was, we should bear their words in mind when we read or hear numbers being quoted in support of a view or argument. Context can be all-important!
 
 
 

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