The highly regarded Ernst & Young Item Club came out at the weekend with a forecast growth for the year of a dismal 0.4%. Although Item Club uses the same economic models as the Treasury, its forecast was much worse than the Treasury's a few weeks ago. Speaking on Radio 4 earlier in the week, its commentator attributed this largely to timing and the dynamic nature of economic factors. The Club says Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hoarding their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list" until companies start spending again.
I talk to many businesses of all shapes and sizes and the vast majority tell me that they are struggling to find customers who are willing to spend or make significant investments. This is a feeling particularly prevalent among the SME community whose fundamental priority seems to be one of survival rather than planning for growth or expansion. We're all waiting for real signs of recovery before we can start to feel confident, and until confidence returns we won't want to spend or invest. Until we do, however, "Britain's economic growth will remain anaemic because companies are hording their cash, and it will stay on the "critical list"......" (see above). It seems like the classic vicious circle to me!
There is one thing that companies could do though that would generate cash-flow for the whole business community and would definitely aid economic recovery. Pay their bills on time! Some do, and there are examples of really good practice, but many - big and small - don't, and because of that their suppliers struggle for healthy cash-flow and in some cases fail to survive. The Prompt Payment Code hosted by the ICM for BIS was launched to help change the culture to one where paying on time and to the agreed payment terms was the norm rather than the exception. Well in excess of a thousand organisations have signed up to the Code but many more could do so.
Paying on time has many advantages: it releases money tied up in unpaid debtors; it allows business owners to focus on selling and providing a better service rather than chasing payment from tardy customers; and ultimately it helps more businesses to survive and prosper. The Prompt Payment Code can be found at http://www.promptpaymentcode.org.uk/.
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