The Government Funding for Lending programme has been launched this week. Under the scheme, the Bank of England will lend money at below-market rates to banks who, in return, will have to increase their lending to businesses and households; progress will be monitored and, if they fail to deliver, the interest rate will increase. There have been some interesting comments and opinions expressed including those who say it's just another in a long line of schemes such as the National Loan Guarantee Scheme that this one will, over time, replace to encourage the banks to lend more.
The initiative is creative and good but I have to say I'm with Jonathan Portes, Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who said on yesterday's Radio 4 Today Programme that making more money available at competitive interest rates is not going to fundamentally address the underlying lack of confidence in the economy. He observed that the scheme will allow businesses who want to borrow to do so more cheaply but it won't encourage the banks to lend more since they will still carry the credit risk. In other words, it will reduce the price of lending rather than increase the volume. What is needed is a boost in confidence to encourage businesses to invest and households to spend more.
Mark Hoban, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, countered that the availability of loans at a lower cost will encourage the bringing forward of projects and spending, and encourage investment that would otherwise not have happened, or at least not happened yet.
We'll see over the coming months but I don't sense any increase in confidence in the many businesses and business owners I speak to. I don't know the answer I'm afraid but it's the level of confidence we need to stimulate; when that happens, the demand problem will take care of itself.
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